May 28th 2023 Elections in Ibiza
-Ibiza will hold multiple elections this year.
The next 4/8 years are crucial for the island and with generous budgets and fat residual bank balances from unspent previous legislations, there is enough gasoline to get the things done!
So, what is it looking like?
Cuidadanos (C´s), the centrist party will probably disappear from the political map, much in line with its demise across the whole of Spain.
Podemos, at the left of left, is likely to lose votes on a general overall disappointment amongst its electorate and bitter infighting amongst the factions of the harder left in Madrid.
VOX, at the right of the right, could will stay where it is, and may be vital in the Ibiza & St. Josep municipalities, though the loss of momentum may well result in a transfer of votes to the PP.
Partido Popular (PP), centre right, and the Socialists Party (PSOE) overall are fairly stable and stand to benefit from any weakness in the smaller parties C´s, VOX and Podemos.
We can surely conclude that both Santa Eularia and Sant Joan, are stable fiefdoms of the PP and would require a very sharp drop to turn the tables, which seems very unlikely.
San Antoni may be a tight call but with the transfer of the C´s & support from any Vox votes could scrape a majority. PxE could be a card to watch.
Sant Josep is tougher to forecast but it is a municipality that traditionally has swing votes within its electorate and the past 4 years have not been very productive.
The actual mayor was not voted in but rather inherited the position as the voted mayor left and went to the autonomous government in Majorca.
Ibiza town remains an incognito, this time round there are 25 seats in play vs 21 in the last elections. This is because the population has increased to over 50,000.
The actual administration have a feeble track record and the 8 years in government have worn and torn electorate sentiment, so votes can easily sway.
Finally the actual Consell run by the PP appear set to win again. The opposition look weak and the existing government have not made any major mistakes during this legislation.
This means we could, just maybe, see the island with a PP majority in all municipalities and the Consell.
If the PP then win in the autonomous government elections, also held in May, that could be a winning proposition for the island as it facilitates the passing of much needed changes with relative ease.
If not, expect to see some antagonism penalise Ibiza with a PSOE led autonomous government.
Of course, one then has to hope that the PP would actually do something constructive with these majorities and actually make what needs to really happen, happen.
The future of Ibiza depends on proper administration more than ever before
A PP victory is usually considered more positive for the real estate market but will depend very much on how it manages the pressing challenges ahead, mainly the housing crisis.
Election results in 2019
Consell d´Eivissa (Insular Government)
| 2019 Election | Votes | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 17.831 | 6 |
| PSOE | 12.906 | 4 |
| Cuidadanos | 3.120 | 1 |
| Podemos | 5.430 | 2 |
| VOX | 1.876 | |
| ARA | 1.373 | |
| PXE | 1.303 | |
| MC EPCI | 925 | |
| Total votes | 45.656 | |
| Abstention | 50.61% | |
| Budget 2023 MM€ | 120,2 | |
Majority 7/13
Current Government PP/C´s
Island Population 154,210
Ayuntamiento de Ibiza
| 2019 Election | Votes | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 3.934 | 8 |
| PSOE | 5.034 | 9 |
| Cuidadanos | 1.664 | 2 |
| Podemos | 1.655 | 2 |
| VOX | 798 | 0 |
| ARA | 428 | 0 |
| PXE | 665 | 0 |
| MC EPCI | 519 | 0 |
| Total votes | 15.226 | |
| Abstention | 50.81% | |
| Budget 2023 MM€ | 76,7 |
Majority 11/21 (2019) – Majority 13/25 (2023)
Current Government PSOE/Podemos
Municipal Population 50,715
Ayuntamiento de Santa Eularia
| 2019 Election | Votes | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 5.835 | 13 |
| PSOE | 2.631 | 6 |
| Cuidadanos | 551 | 0 |
| Podemos | 1.212 | 2 |
| VOX | 450 | 0 |
| ARA | 368 | 0 |
| PXE | 159 | 0 |
| MC EPCI | 174 | |
| Total votes | 11.576 | |
| Abstention | 51.64% | |
| Budget 2023 MM€ | 52,17 |
Majority 11/21
Current Government PP
Municipal Population 40,548
Ayuntamiento de Sant Josep
| 2019 Election | Votes | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 2.002 | 5 |
| PSOE | 2.859 | 8 |
| Cuidadanos | 688 | 2 |
| Podemos | 1.023 | 3 |
| VOX | 462 | 1 |
| ARA | 498 | 1 |
| PXE | 478 | 1 |
| MC EPCI | 329 | 0 |
| Total votes | 8.928 | |
| Abstention | 53.51% | |
| Budget 2023 MM€ | 47,92 |
Majority 11/21
Current Government PSOE/Podemos
Municipal Population 28,813
Ayuntamiento de Sant Antoni
| 2019 Election | Votes | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Partido Popular | 3.072 | 9 |
| PSOE | 2.853 | 8 |
| Cuidadanos | 436 | 1 |
| Podemos | 870 | 2 |
| VOX | 375 | 0 |
| ARA | 142 | 0 |
| PXE | 458 | 1 |
| MC EPCI | 123 | |
| Total votes | 8.487 | |
| Abstention | 50.7% | |
| Budget 2023 MM€ | 31,40 |
Majority 11/21
Current Government PP/C´s/PxE
Municipal Population 27,431
Ayuntamiento Sant Joan
| 2019 Election | Votes | Seats |
| Partido Popular | 1.405 | 10 |
| PSOE | 346 | 2 |
| Cuidadanos | 42 | 0 |
| Podemos | 247 | 1 |
| VOX | 30 | 0 |
| ARA | – | 0 |
| PXE | 19 | 0 |
| MC EPCI | 16 | |
| Total votes | 2.153 | |
| Abstention | 41.03% | |
| Budget 2023 MM€ | 11,05 |
Majority 7/13
Current Government PP
Municipal Population 6,703